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Abstract

Shallots are agricultural products whose consumption continues to increase from year to year. This increase was driven by several factors, including population growth and the community's economy which continues to improve. Because shallots are seasonal crops, their availability is unstable when they hit the market and their prices often rise. Shallot Price Volatility Affects Producers and Consumers. Farmers take too many risks about the uncertainty of market prices at harvest, but when the price of shallots rises, consumers also lose purchasing power. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is one of the most popular models for forecasting time series data. The purpose of this study is to see the role of a forecast on one of the food commodities in Indonesia, namely shallots. Thus, the purpose of this study is how effective the Arima method is in predicting the production of shallots. Systematic Literature Review A term used to refer to a research methodology or the results of a particular research and development carried out to collect and evaluate relevant research on a particular topic. From the explanations and discussions in existing articles and journals, we can conclude that the need for shallot commodities will increase every year. This is influenced by various factors ranging from the amount of production, exports and imports, the dollar exchange rate and even local traditions.